Overview
During adolescence, the developmental period between childhood and adulthood, we refine our sense of who we are, who we want to become, and how we want to contribute to the world. The rapid brain development and learning that occur during these years make this an important window for building the skills we need to succeed economically in adulthood.
Today, new technologies and other economic shifts are making the path to economic opportunity more uncertain for many young people. Youth unemployment is now above 10%, significantly higher than in years past, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Both recent college grads and young people with high school diplomas are facing the question of how AI and macroeconomic uncertainty are impacting entry-level jobs.
At the ASA Center for Career Navigation at JFF and the UCLA Center for the Developing Adolescent, we focus on the interconnected issues of how young people navigate their careers and build their economic lives during this dynamic developmental period.
Key findings include:
- Providing individualized, developmentally-appropriate support is key to navigating education and career decision-making among young people
- Peer relationships and group-based career exploration can be particularly helpful to young people
- Family guidance and intergenerational perspective provide a strong influence on young people navigating their career journeys · Flexibility pathways through skills training, work-based learning, and other experiences can help young people discover and refine ambitions and goals
Challenges of a shifting labor market
Navigating a career and building an economic life are complex tasks. Young people building their careers must be reflective and self-aware, considering personal interests and aptitudes, educational pathways, the labor market, and visions of a thriving future. They must make high-stakes decisions as they embark and persist on a journey that is non-linear and will likely last for decades.
Today’s youth are doing this work in an economy and labor market that is characterized by significant ambiguity.
Current challenges include:
- Artificial intelligence is expected to profoundly transform the economy and labor market, contributing to significant changes to the tasks and responsibilities of roles across industries as AI becomes further integrated into workplace operations.i
- Leading economists from Deloitte have shared wide-ranging views on how tariffs, changes to government spending and investment in key sectors, declining international immigration, and a dynamic set of tax policies will impact current and future job opportunities.
- Entry-level jobs are an area of significant attention, as economists, business leaders, technologists, and others try to understand and predict what will happen to these first-rung jobs going forward.
As we think about supporting young people in making education and career decisions that lead to quality jobs and economic advancement, it is helpful to understand how this heightened state of economic and labor market uncertainty may shape their decision-making processes.
The developmental science of coping with uncertainty
As we progress through adolescence, we continue to develop the skills that help us cope with uncertainty, manage our emotions, and make informed decisions. This is in part because the connections within our brain that help us manage stress and make healthy decisions continue to strengthen and refine throughout this stage of development.ii As we gain more experience navigating uncertainty and more practice making healthy decisions, these systems within our brain become more efficient and help us navigate new experiences.
Early in our teen years, we are generally more tolerant of uncertainty, more comfortable approaching unfamiliar situations, and motivated to seek out novel experiences.iii This can be very beneficial, compelling us to explore, take risks, and learn from new experiences. For many people, as we approach early adulthood, our comfort with uncertainty begins to decrease, and we begin to favor more familiar, predictable options over the more novel, uncertain ones.iv These developmental changes are important to keep in mind when determining the most effective education and career supports for young people.
However, the stress of market uncertainty can also affect these behaviors:
- In a labor market with many unknowns, a young person may stick with a less desirable or lower-paying job rather than take the risk of leaving for a newer, potentially higher-paying or more rewarding position elsewhere.
- The overall uncertainty of the market can cause significant stress during an already stressful period of transition as young people acquire new adult responsibilities and navigate new environments, such as new workplaces, new homes, or new social groups, potentially for the first time. Research finds that periods of unpredictability can negatively affect our mental health,v highlighting the importance of providing support for young people as they navigate a rapidly changing economic landscape.
- Although average patterns show that early adulthood is a time when we generally become less likely to take risks, even risks that could benefit us in the long term,vi we also know that there are significant individual differences in how people respond to uncertainty. These preferences are partly shaped by our prior experiences and economic circumstances. Both brief and prolonged periods of stress can cause us to favor more familiar choices rather than exploring unknown or uncertain ones.vii
Research finds that young people who have experienced adversity earlier in life are often more likely to avoid uncertainty and favor “safer,” more sure options when making economic decisions.viii Although this adaptation may keep us safe in more dangerous environments, this tendency to avoid uncertainty can also prevent us from taking opportunities that can serve us in the long term. For instance, the decision to attend college, move to a new city, or take a chance on a new career requires some comfort with taking risks, even in the face of uncertainty.
Given these findings, it’s particularly important to consider how to best support young people from populations that face barriers to advancement, including people without a four-year degree, people of color, even those with a four-year degree, women, even those with a four-year degree, and people with records of arrest, conviction, or incarceration.
Recommendations for youth career and education support
Insights from developmental science point us to several factors to take into account when considering how to support young people as they navigate educational and career decisions during this period of economic uncertainty.
- Emotional support and validation. Managing uncertainty is stressful and emotionally taxing. During adolescence, the systems within our brains that help us to regulate our emotions and make decisions in the presence of stress are still developing.ix It is important for practitioners to validate young people’s emotions and provide them with the emotional support they need as they navigate these challenges. While providing young people with career guidance in this evolving economic landscape may be challenging, offering genuine and individualized support for their emotional well-being is essential for enabling them to make informed and healthy decisions.
- Peer and group engagement. Young people often look to their friends and peers for support, especially when they face uncertainty.x Providing opportunities for young people to learn from one another as they navigate educational and career choices is one way to support their development. Near-peer mentors and group-based career exploration and navigation experiences can nurture the skills needed to strengthen interpersonal relationships, helping young people tap into this asset as they navigate their career journey.
- Family and intergenerational input. Young people are also developmentally at a stage where their parents and family of origin play a significant role in their development and decision-making, particularly in areas such as education and career choices.xi Practitioners should consider ways to integrate intergenerational approaches that recognize the role that these adults play in a young person’s life, while also responding to the drive for independence that young people experience during this stage of life.
- Flexible systems for exploration and advancement. In our late teens and early twenties, we often refine our goals as we learn more about what is important to us and what we want for our future. This process of updating our goals requires learning from experience, often through trial and error. It is essential that various opportunities remain available to young people, providing multiple on-ramps to a thriving adulthood as they refine their skills, establish their sense of identity, and define their long-term goals. Stakeholders should work to advance practices and policies that enable this flexibility and pivoting.
Examples include:- Information about postsecondary skill and career pathways that include stackable, flexible routes to different occupations within and between industries
- Frameworks that provide young people with academic credit, industry-recognized credentials, and income for work-based learning experiences such that these activities have “value” across a range of education and career pathways
- Encouragement to take a skills-based approach within their navigation journey, highlighting the applicability and relevance of skills gained throughout their journey as aligned with new and emerging career steps
Because the brain is so plastic during this period, rapidly changing in response to our experiences, it is an opportune time to provide adolescents with the support and experiences they need to thrive. Although economic uncertainty presents a significant challenge to the young workforce, adolescence and the transition to adulthood are a remarkable period of development in which the right support can help shape our long-term success.
Endnotes
i “How Will AI Affect the Global Workforce?,” Goldman Sachs, August 13, 2025, https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/how-will-ai-affect-the-global-workforce
ii Casey, B. J., Heller, A. S., Gee, D. G., & Cohen, A. O. (2019). Development of the emotional brain. Neuroscience letters, 693, 29-34.
iii Blankenstein, N. E., Crone, E. A., van den Bos, W., & van Duijvenvoorde, A. C. (2016). Dealing with uncertainty: Testing risk-and ambiguity-attitude across adolescence. Developmental neuropsychology, 41(1-2), 77-92.
iv ibid
v Maner, J. K., Hasty, C. R., Martinez, J. L., Ehrlich, K. B., & Gerend, M. A. (2023). The role of childhood unpredictability in adult health. Journal of Behavioral Medicine, 46(3), 417-428.
vi Blankenstein et al.
vii Lenow, J. K., Constantino, S. M., Daw, N. D., & Phelps, E. A. (2017). Chronic and acute stress promote overexploitation in serial decision making. Journal of Neuroscience, 37(23), 5681-5689.
viii Frankenhuis, W. E., & Gopnik, A. (2023). Early adversity and the development of explore–exploit tradeoffs. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 27(7), 616-630.
ix Casey et al.
x Slagter, S. K., van Duijvenvoorde, A. C., & van den Bos, W. (2023). Adolescents seek social information under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 152(3), 890.
xi Gallup, Inc., “Walton Family Foundation-Gallup Gen Z Research Hub,” Gallup.com, October 10, 2024, https://www.gallup.com/analytics/651674/gen-z-research.aspx; Metheny, J., & McWhirter, E. H. (2013). Contributions of social status and family support to college students’ career decision self-efficacy and outcome expectations. Journal of career assessment, 21(3), 378-394.
